Quantitative estimation and mathematical modeling of demographic potential in Russia

Ани Гагиковна Сукиасян

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Quantitative estimation and mathematical modeling of demographic potential in Russia

А. Г. Сукиасян

2025-11-14

https://doi.org/10.24108/preprints-3113902

The demographic problem in Russia remains relevant since the early 90s of the XX century and is caused by a number of reasons, including a low fertility rate over a long period of time and a high rate of premature mortality among youths and the working-age population, which lead, in particular, to an increase in the demographic burden, population aging, problems the imbalance in the labor market. As a result, this has a negative impact on the country’s welfare, since demographic potential is an integral part of the country's human potential. This justifies the necessity to develop an approach to obtaining an integral indicator that objectively reflects the state and trends of demographic potential in Russia and its regions, which can be used both to conduct a comparative analysis of regions or in dynamics in order to identify the regions for targeted financing and support from the state, and to build multidimensional models, to assess the degree of influence of the characteristics of the socio-economic situation of Russia and its regions on the level of demographic potential. The results obtained on the basis of these models can be used to justify demographic policy measures aimed at leveling the demographic situation in the country and developing a strategy for the transition from depopulation to expanded reproduction. Currently, many approaches to quantifying Russia's demographic potential have been proposed in the scientific literature. The article analyzes the advantages and limitations of the most common models and methods for assessing demographic potential, based on various approaches to defining the concept of "demographic potential". Estimates of demographic potential based on the net reproduction rate, marginal growth rate and standardized growth rate are obtained. A comparative analysis of the results of assessing the level of Russia's demographic potential for the period from 1995 to 2022 based on integral indicators has been carried out.

Ссылка для цитирования:

Сукиасян А. Г. 2025. Quantitative estimation and mathematical modeling of demographic potential in Russia. PREPRINTS.RU. https://doi.org/10.24108/preprints-3113902

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