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The Cyclical Civilization Hypothesis: A Technogenic Reset of the Great Filter
2026-04-21
This paper proposes the Cyclical Civilization Hypothesis (CCH) as an integrative framework addressing aspects of the Fermi Paradox. The hypothesis posits that highly developed but regionally isolated technological civilizations—termed Autonomous Separated Systems (ASS)—may have repeatedly emerged throughout Earth’s geological history. These systems are suggested to have failed to achieve planetary integration and to have encountered a Technogenic Critical Point (TCP), a threshold at which technological capability exceeded the capacity for effective social, ethical, and cognitive regulation, resulting in systemic collapse.
Within this framework, the Great Filter is reinterpreted not as a singular cosmic event, but as a recurring technological barrier intrinsic to intelligent technological evolution. The absence of clear evidence for prior civilizations is attributed to their localized spatial scale and to geological erasure processes, including erosion, plate subduction, and biogeochemical recycling over timescales of 1–5 million years. By contrast, contemporary Homo sapiens civilization represents the first globally integrated technological system, approaching a planetary-scale TCP facilitated by the rapid advancement and infrastructural integration of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI). The hypothesis is explicitly falsifiable, generating testable predictions amenable to geological, geochemical, and archaeological investigation.
Ссылка для цитирования:
Nurmanbetov A. 2026. The Cyclical Civilization Hypothesis: A Technogenic Reset of the Great Filter. PREPRINTS.RU. https://doi.org/10.24108/preprints-3115009
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